asianews

So, according to prime minister Hun Sen, as long as he remains at the top job there will be political stability in Cambodia. He makes this claim at the recent Second Mekong-Japan Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Siem Reap. And Hun Sen is probably right about the stability, considering the fact that oppositions are weak, disorganised, and unable to mount any credible challenges to him.

However, if it is true that the motive behind the claim is to impress new Japanese foreign minister Katsuya Okada for substantial Japanese investments in Cambodia, Hun Sen may be disappointed. His kind of stability that depends on him being there can, of course, attract certain businessmen who are seeking a quick profit with opportunities to move their capital in and out at short notice. It is a business operation that most suits fly-by-night or vulture companies that know who to bribe.

But serious foreign investors – the ones whom Council for Development of Cambodia secretary-general Sok Chenda says want to grow with the host country – may not share Hun Sen’s enthusiasm for his brand of stability the way he hopes they will. To them, the prime minister’s claim rings an alarm bell flagging a huge country risk, instead of a welcoming sign, when political stability of a country depends on an individual rather than institutions. They know there is a limit to how long a person can live, or can perform at optimum; only a strong institution can offer a lasting political stability that is conducive to long term business prosperity.

With his previous statement that without him there will be war, prime minister Hun Sen effectively makes those investors cringe. The Japanese government has been supportive of Cambodia from day one since the peace settlement; it funds, in one form or another, about fifty percent of the Cambodian national budget every year. But in contrast, Japanese businessmen generally have not been further away from what salesman par excellent Sok Chenda claims to be a unique money-making opportunity in Cambodia. There is a reason for them to stay away in droves.

If Hun Sen were to attract long term investors whom Sok Chenda cherishes, he would have to start working on building a strong government institution for Cambodia – the one that does not depend on him, and will last long after he is gone. He would need to believe that, no matter how comfortably he can walk all over his political opponents, he will neither last nor live forever. Like others, he is mortal and vulnerable to unpredictable future. He may be in charge,but not everything under the sun is under his control. Some X factor could abruptly put him out of commission, which will drown everything that depends on him.

With a strong institution, besides securing those beneficial foreign investments, Cambodia would not be thrown into chaos every time there is a leader changeover. The people would likely be spared from sufferings in between regimes they have frequently experienced since the heyday of Angkor.